The luxury slowdown is here, but is it a blip, a market correction or a sign that the industry needs a radical rethink? From price hikes and shifting consumer values to strategic missteps and the rise of resale, we explore the forces reshaping the luxury landscape
In the past year, both Kering and LVMH, arguably the world’s largest luxury conglomerates, reported declines in revenue. LVMH reported a 3 per cent organic growth last quarter, down from 14 per cent in 2023. Meanwhile, its leather goods and fashion revenues are down 5 per cent, while its wine and spirits business has slumped 6 per cent. At Kering, revenues fell by 20 per cent in the first half of the year.
In a sign of the times, British luxury e-commerce platform Farfetch was acquired by Coupang—South Korea’s version of Amazon—after facing financial difficulties, and Switzerland’s Richemont sold the online fashion retailer Yoox Net-a-Porter to Germany-based e-commerce company MyTheresa.
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Still, despite these troubles, brands like Prada, Miu Miu and Moncler have reported double-digit growth in Asia-Pacific, while Richemont, which owns luxury watch and jewellery brands like Cartier, outperformed expectations, raising questions about the broader health of the luxury market.
However, all in all, luxury is not doing great. According to a Bank of America report, the luxury sector has slowed down, leading to speculations about whether it’s a harbinger of that recession we have been talking about for the past two years.
So what really is going on?
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1. Unhealthy market conditions
We remember those dark days of early 2020 when we thought we would never leave our houses and never need to dress up again. The initial slowdown brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic was later reversed by revenge spending, and by 2021, the luxury sector was exploding, reporting unprecedented growth.
Since 2023, however, the fever seems to be abating, with growth levels reaching pre-pandemic numbers. “Maybe the current global situation, be it geopolitical or macroeconomic, doesn’t lead people to cheer up and open bottles of champagne,” Jean-Jacques Guiony, LVMH’s chief financial officer, said during its earnings call in July. “I don’t really know. The matter of fact is, is that our volumes are down double digits.”
This slowdown is also attributed to China’s slowing economic growth. For the past decade, China was the driving force of luxury, both in its home markets and overseas, accounting for 50 per cent of LVMH’s pre-pandemic growth. A drop in consumer spending has directly impacted the fortunes of luxury brands. Sales in Asia, excluding Japan, have dropped 14 per cent.
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This decline in China is linked to various factors, including a real estate crisis, economic uncertainty and the government’s “common prosperity” drive, which aims to reduce wealth inequality. Reduced tourism from China has also impacted global luxury sales.
This resulted in Bernard Arnault, the owner of LVMH (which holds 75 brands including Dior, Louis Vuitton, Celine and Sephora), losing his title as the world’s richest man, when his company stock price slumped 20 per cent and caused him to lose US$54 billion in one fell swoop. He’s still worth US$177 billion, though.
“As long as I’m not the richest man in the world, I won’t really be happy,” Arnault once said.